Let me start this diary by first disclosing that I am an Obama supporter in the primaries, but would have no reservations whatsoever about voting for Hillary in the general election. None at all. I think both candidates would be fantastic presidents, and those people saying that they'll refuse to vote for one candidate or another I think are being really short-sighted.
The reason for this is that, as others have noted here and elsewhere, my #1 consideration for this election is winning, namely because I want to make sure that a democrat is appointing the next Supreme Court justices.
That being said, while obviously the issues are very important to me, my biggest consideration (barring obvious MAJOR differences on issues, ie, I wouldn't vote for Lieberman in a primary) for who to support is who has the best chance of winning in November. Before the primary season really got started, I personally always thought that Hillary would be a terrible general election candidate. Not only does she completely polarize and energize the right, but even a subset of people on the left completely hate her. Not only that, she's been so tarnished by the right for the past 15 years that it's rubbed off in the center too, and the general electorate already has a mostly negative view of her. It's certainly possible to win with high negatives, but it effectively amounts to asking people to vote for you DESPITE their hate for you. That seemed like a significant obstacle to overcome in a general election, and frankly, I'd just as soon avoid it.
So, this was my thinking even before I started examining the candidates on the issues. After examining them, I had concerns with all of them, but I leaned towards Edwards more than the others. I liked Hillary, but with my above reservations and her refusal to admit she made a mistake with her Iraq vote, she dropped to the bottom of my list. I liked Obama, my Senator, and I was intrigued by his sort of "Rock Star" status, but I was also concerned with what his campaign was saying. With all of his talk about "change" and basically bringing "Republicans and Democrats" together, it reminded me a lot of Bush's 2000 campaign. Not only that, after all the crap that the Republicans have pulled in the past 7 years, I didn't want to negotiate with them, I wanted them thrown out and humiliated. Maybe this was actually his plan, as Bush did to Dems in 2000 despite losing the popular vote, but it bothered me nonetheless. Edwards seemed to be the most likely to, shall we say, stir things up. So, Edwards it was.
But, fast forward a bit, and Edwards drops out and Obama's following continued to surprise me with how much steam it was gathering. Between Obama and Clinton, I didn't see a significant difference in the issues. I may favor Clinton on some issues, but Obama on others. But what really trumps all that is, once again, my desire to win in November. And again, given his amazing following and ability to appeal to people across the idealogical spectrum, Obama just seemed like the better bet to me.
Now, I'm sure all of you Clinton supporters think I'm just crazy for thinking this... that all of this support will evaporate once the Republican machine latches on to him, that he's all hype and hope and no substance. Perhaps there's even some truth to the fact that his extremely dedicated following is, at the very least, surprising.
But guess what? I don't care. Why, you ask? Well, I've already said it a bunch of times in this diary: because I want to win in November. If Obama's fervent support is unexplainable, it makes no difference to me. What matters is that he HAS that fervent support, and that he seems to have broad appeal. The chances that his support here will evaporate seems less likely to me than it would be for Clinton to decrease her negatives and increase her positives. And that's what the polls have been showing.
Don't believe me or the latest polls? Well, how about some empirical data from exit polls on Obama's US senate run in 2004, a year which was actually a bad year for Democrats (as opposed to this year which should be a good year for Democrats):
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/r esults/states/IL/S/01/epolls.0.html
Now, I know what you Clinton supporters are thinking: even a trained monkey with a "D" next to his name could probably beat Alan Keyes. And you're right. But take a look at the vote by Party ID and the vote by Idealogy: 40% of self-described REPUBLICANS voted for Obama. 33% of self-described CONSERVATIVES voted for Obama. That is extraordinarily high. I have no dreams of possibly getting 40% of the Republican vote or 33% of the Conservative vote in November, but the fact of the matter is that his cross-over appeal is real. Even my right-wing uncle has said he likes Obama and would vote for him in November.
Now, the point of all of this is is not just to partially explain my Obama support, but that I'm just tired of seeing one diary after another attacking the hell out of one candidate or another, or Clinton supporters calling all Obama supporters "Obamabots" or Obama supporters calling Hillary "Billary." Both candidates are going to have support that, in some ways, makes no sense and has absolutely nothing to do with "issues". A friend of mine told me she supported Hillary solely because she was a woman. Do you think she's the only one?
So please, stop this ridiculous bickering. All of us call it like we see it, we all think our candidate is the one to win, and we all have our reasons. If you're upset because you think people aren't examining the issues, well, guess what? It pretty much never comes down to issues, and if you had a candidate who matched 100% with your issues but you didn't think could win November, you wouldn't vote for them either. Clinton advocates think Obama's support will evaporate, and Obama advocates think Clinton has a huge hill to climb to win. We honestly just don't know so we're just going with our best guess.
We like who we like, we have our gut feelings, and we have our reasons. Don't just write off a group of supporters simply because you think it doesn't make sense.
And I hope once this is all over, we can all work towards electing whoever the nominee is. As an Obama supporter, I promise to do so for Clinton should she be the nominee. I hope Clinton supporters will do the same for Obama.
|
|
|
Permalink :: 7 Comments :: Post a Comment
|
In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.
If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.